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Most products fail.
Not because they're bad products. Because nobody validated demand before investing.
I've watched founders sink $10K, $50K, even $100K into inventory for products that collect dust in a warehouse. The painful part? They could've known it wouldn't sell for $0.
Today I'm giving you the exact validation playbook I've seen work over and over. No inventory. No ad spend. Just signals.
THE $100K MISTAKE (AND HOW TO AVOID IT)
True story: A founder I know fell in love with a "revolutionary" kitchen gadget. She was CERTAIN it would sell.
She ordered 5,000 units from China. $47,000 all-in.
Six months later, she'd sold 89 units.
The product wasn't bad. It actually worked great. But she never validated that anyone WANTED it.
The signals were there if she'd looked:
No search volume for the product category
Competitors had terrible reviews (meaning the category was broken)
Similar products failed on Amazon within 6 months
She didn't look. $47,000 lesson.
THE 5-SIGNAL VALIDATION FRAMEWORK
Before you spend $1, every product needs to pass these 5 tests.
SIGNAL 1: Search Demand (Do people look for this?)
Tools: Google Trends, UberSuggest, Keywords Everywhere
What to check:
Is search volume stable or growing? (Not declining)
Are people searching for solutions to this problem?
What's the search volume for competitors?
Red flags:
Zero search volume = zero demand
Declining trend = dying market
Only branded searches = no category awareness
Green flags:
Steady or rising search volume
High commercial intent keywords ("best [product] for [use case]")
Problem-aware searches ("how to fix [problem]")
Example: "Posture corrector" has 110K monthly searches and has grown 40% since 2021. That's validated demand.
SIGNAL 2: Competitor Validation (Is anyone already making money?)
Tools: Amazon Best Sellers, Jungle Scout, Helium 10
What to check:
Are there 3-10 competitors making sales?
What's their estimated monthly revenue?
How long have they been selling?
Red flags:
Zero competitors = no market (or you're too early)
50+ competitors = saturated, price war
Top sellers have thousands of reviews but low BSR = declining
Green flags:
3-10 competitors doing $10K-$100K/month
Competitors have weak listings (opportunity to differentiate)
Mix of established and newer sellers (market still growing)
Example: A product with 5 competitors averaging 200 reviews and $30K/month revenue = validated market with room to enter.
SIGNAL 3: Social Proof (Are people talking about this problem?)
Tools: Reddit, Facebook Groups, TikTok, Twitter
What to check:
Are people complaining about this problem?
Are they asking for product recommendations?
Are existing solutions getting roasted or praised?
Red flags:
Nobody talks about the problem
Existing solutions are "good enough"
Category is a joke or meme (fidget spinners in 2024)
Green flags:
Frequent complaints about the problem
"I wish there was a product that..." posts
Viral videos showing the problem or solution
Example: Search "[product category] Reddit" and read the top 10 posts. If people are passionate (positive or negative), there's a market.
SIGNAL 4: Pricing Power (Will margins work?)
Tools: Alibaba, AliExpress, competitor pricing
What to check:
What's the landed cost (product + shipping + fees)?
What are competitors charging?
Is there room for 3-4x markup?
Red flags:
Competitors selling at 1.5-2x cost (race to bottom)
Heavy discounting required to move units
Amazon/Walmart sells the same product cheaper
Green flags:
3-4x markup possible
Premium positioning opportunity
Ability to bundle for higher AOV
Example: If you can source for $8, ship for $4, and sell for $39+, you have healthy margins.
SIGNAL 5: Content Potential (Can you market this?)
Tools: TikTok Creative Center, YouTube search, Instagram explore
What to check:
Does this product demo well in video?
Is there a before/after transformation?
Can you create 50+ pieces of content about it?
Red flags:
Boring to look at
Requires explanation to understand
No visual transformation
Green flags:
Satisfying to watch (cleaning products, organizers)
Clear before/after (skincare, fitness)
Multiple use cases to demonstrate
Example: A product that goes viral once can go viral again. Check if similar products have gotten millions of views.
CASE STUDY: HOW CARAWAY VALIDATED BEFORE LAUNCH
Caraway Home (the non-toxic cookware brand) did $43M in their second year.
But before they launched, they validated everything.
The validation:
Search demand: "Non-toxic cookware" searches were growing 25% YoY
Competitor gap: Existing options were ugly or expensive
Social proof: Wellness influencers were already talking about toxic cookware
Pricing power: Could position at premium ($395 set vs. $50 generic)
Content potential: Beautiful product = Instagram gold
They didn't guess. They knew.
(Source: Inc Magazine, Caraway founder interviews)
THE $0 VALIDATION SPRINT (DO THIS BEFORE SOURCING)
Day 1: Search Analysis
Check Google Trends for your product category (30 min)
Run keyword research in Ubersuggest (30 min)
Document: Is demand growing, stable, or declining?
Day 2: Competitor Deep Dive
Find 5-10 competitors on Amazon (30 min)
Estimate their monthly revenue with Jungle Scout free trial (30 min)
Document: Is there room for another player?
Day 3: Social Listening
Search Reddit, Facebook Groups, TikTok (1 hour)
Read what people love/hate about existing solutions
Document: What's the #1 complaint?
Day 4: Unit Economics
Get quotes from 3 Alibaba suppliers (30 min)
Calculate landed cost + 3x markup (30 min)
Document: Is the margin viable?
Day 5: Content Audit
Search TikTok for similar products (30 min)
Watch top-performing videos (30 min)
Document: Can you replicate this content?
By Friday, you'll know if this product is worth pursuing - without spending a dollar.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Validation isn't optional. It's survival.
The founders who win:
Check demand before they source
Study competitors before they launch
Test content angles before they run ads
The founders who lose:
Fall in love with their idea
Skip validation because they're "sure"
Find out the market doesn't exist after spending $50K
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See you next Issue,
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